PTI’s vote validation – voting differences
PTI has demanded that for six constituencies, votes be validated through matching thumb prints with the NADRA database. Such an exercise could be fruitful if PTI’s losing margin is small.
However, the constituencies demanded by PTI are a mixed bag, with the differences varying from 4,000 to 40,000, as the following table shows.
|
Constituency |
PTI |
Opposition |
Affiliation |
Difference |
|
55515 |
59638 |
PML-N |
4123 |
|
|
71525 |
92803 |
PML-N |
21278 |
|
|
84417 |
93362 |
PML-N |
8945 |
|
|
83190 |
123094 |
PML-N |
39904 |
|
|
75184 |
86046 |
Independent |
10862 |
|
|
34601 |
39069 |
MQM |
4468 |
Note: The names of the constituencies are linked to the corresponding source at the ECP website.
Peshawar’s Bravest Son
Bashir Bilour’s speech filmed by: Irfan Ullah Paracha
Election is a time of promises. Promises backed up by past deeds. Deeds which assure of virtues. In these days of terror, courage is one virtue that everyone with a microphone is trying to sell. Some do it by likening themselves to big scary cats, while others claim to be natural disasters.
But talk is cheap as it is the walk that counts.
Fear is an inclination to avoid unwanted consequences. Courage helps overcome that inclination. The more drastic the consequence, the higher is the level of courage required to overcome it.
Consider two individuals; Asif Ali Zardari and Baitullah Mehsud. One has allegations of corruption against him, while the other has proudly owned the killing of thousands. As Pakistanis we have the right to criticize both and it should be a no-brainer as to who deserves more.
But then consider the consequences; call Zardari what ever you want and there are none, but the same isn’t true for Baitullah Mehsud.
In today’s Pakistan, death is a likely consequence for politicians who dare to criticize the Taliban. This particular fact creates a threshold that separates the lions from the goats.
Recently there has been an acute shortage of lions among our political leadership and Bashir Ahmad Bilour was one of those very few we had.
To understand Bashir Bilour’s contribution, one has to consider the plight of his region, i.e. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA. This area has been subjected to one of the deadliest terror campaigns in recent history, and Bashir Bilour’s Peshawar is one of the worst hit in this region.
For his people the flash of a “breaking news” sign is a cue to panic. Panic about the loved ones who are not in physical proximity. The mangled up car shown on TV suddenly starts to look familiar, and a non-responding cellphone raises fears of injury or even death. The unlucky few realize their ultimate nightmare while the lucky majority makes a vow to submit to terror and curtails its personal freedoms.
Bashir Bilour tried liberating his people from this psychological grip of terror. And he did that through his own courageous behavior. When other leaders would mince their words to denounce Taliban massacres, Bashir Bilour would be one of the very few to boldly step forward and point his finger at the villains. After almost every bombing in Peshawar, he along with Miyaan Iftikhar (both serving ministers) would be present on the scene. A very courageous act, especially in a country where security protocols for civilian as well as military VIPs resemble small armies.
It was with this established ethos of courage and dedication that Bashir Bilour used to address his audiences. This video is of one of his last speeches; he was martyred approximately two months after this.
His speech is about hope and encouragement. He praises the people of Peshawar for their courage and unity in the face of terror. He takes on the stereotyping of Peshawar’s Hindko speakers as weaklings and tells his audience, that they should not take that from anyone because their leaders have been as steadfast as rocks in this crisis. He narrates how he refused to cower while facing a suicide bomber and how he ventured into Darra Adam Khel despite security warnings from officials.
And then he shares the secret of his strength; which is a simple belief, that the time of death has already been decided. It is a belief that is shared by most in this country, albeit with varying degrees of strength. With his own actions Bashir Bilour probably aimed to strengthen this particular belief among his terror stricken people, to a level that would enable them to live normally.
But his enemies finally got to him, and Peshawar lost one of its bravest sons.
They say fear is contagious but then so is courage, if Bashir Bilour’s targeting was intended to instill fear, then it definitely has had the reverse effect. In his martyrdom, Bashir Bilour has become a symbol of fearless defiance whose ownership has gone beyond the ANP. If the plan was to make an example out of him, then that plan has failed. He for sure has become an example, but not one to take heed from, rather one to be emulated.
Watan Ya Kafan
The Awami National Party (ANP) began its campaign with the slogan “Pur Amn Pakistan”. However, in the aftermath of the attack on the Bilours of Peshawar, an unofficial slogan came to the fore and has since taken over.
“Watan Ya Kafan” (Country or Shroud) sums up the stance of a group that is bloodied and cornered but yet proud and defiant. Not only does it signify ANP’s resolve but it also pays homage to the choice made by more than 700 of its martyrs.
One would assume that such gallantry would elicit praise from all quarters. But that is certainly not the case. Instead, there exists quite a strong sense of resentment. Polls indicate that, and my personal interactions corroborate it. By and large, the source of this resentment seems to be ANP’s financial corruption.
This belief is mostly backed by anecdotes. And one particular line that is quoted as the ultimate proof is “Baba ta easy load ka”, alluding that during ANP’s tenure bribing Haider Hoti’s father was necessary for getting things done.
Ironically, many of my friends who are utterly disgusted with ANP’s corruption, seem to have a different yardstick for their own financial integrity. One will claim a substantial inheritance from a father who was known for taking bribes. Another, a Government servant, is infamous for not even pardoning relatives when it comes to “fees”. But then both are completely disgusted over Baba’s “easy loads”. And they have every right to be, because hypocrisy of critics should not absolve the ANP of its crimes.
It would be ridiculous to claim that the ANP government was not involved in any corruption, but by the same token it would be naïve to rely just on anecdotes to associate it with corruption at unmatched levels. If the accusations are true and corruption was that widespread in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, then some indicator somewhere should capture it. Especially when compared with other provinces.
The Transparency International (TI) Pakistan is one such source. Its surveys for 2009 & 2010 provide estimates of the annual average provincial corruption expenditures. For both these years the sample from KP had one of the lowest corruption expenditures among the four provinces. For 2009, Khyber Pakhtunkha averaged at Rs. 3,454, while Punjab was Rs. 19,959. For 2010, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was the lowest among all provinces at Rs. 3,528, while the highest i.e. Punjab was at Rs. 17,791. This infographic has more detailed comparisons based on those statistics.
TI Pakistan didn’t consider these estimates in its provincial corruption ranking for 2010, as it was based on perceptions. It focused on just one question; for KP, the respondents were asked if the present Government (ANP) was more corrupt than the previous government (MMA). But here is the twist; for some odd reason TI chose Peshawar, Mansehra, Abbotabad and Haripur as representative districts for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
An anti ANP verdict from the Hazara division was inevitable, and this was presented as the perception of the whole province. This result was then used extensively in the media to label ANP’s government as the most corrupt. I wrote a more detailed piece on TI Pakistan’s methodology back in 2010.
While the jury is still out on ANP, lets focus a bit on this national obsession with corruption. Yes, corruption is a huge problem in Pakistan, but does it really overshadow terrorism? Last year, Pakistan had a total of 652 bombings leading to 1,007 deaths, that means an average of 2 bombings and 3 deaths per day! and this was one of our better years.
But yet survey after survey confirms that Pakistan considers corruption to be a bigger problem than terrorism. This is akin to a cancer patient citing a common cold as his biggest ailment. The difference between corruption and terrorism should be obvious from their respective units of measurement; rupees for corruption and deaths for terrorism. How big of a bribe can outweigh the death of one human?
The ANP’s biggest sacrifice is against the menace of terrorism. If it had followed MMA’s path, today some of its top workers and leaders would still be alive. But instead it took on the biggest monster of our times, and paid dearly for it. Ironically the ones so eager to bestow the title of “Pashtun resistance” on the Taliban refuse to even acknowledge this non-violent defiance.
Acknowledged or not, but the followers of Bacha Khan are meeting the standards that were set in Qissa Khawani in 1930, and Barbara in 1948. The villains might have changed but the resolve of these martyrs harks back to the days of Ghaffar Khan. It is a fact that the number of martyrs of ANP is comparable to those from uniformed outfits like the Frontier Constabulary, Police and Pakistan Army. Not a small feat for a political party.
However the comparison is really striking when done against other parties, especially the ones claiming ferocity of felines and natural disasters. This lot is faking complete oblivion to a danger that threatens the very existence of their proposed “Roshan” and “Naya” Pakistans.
Cowardice and opportunism seem to be the only apparent reasons for their silence. A convenient excuse is to declare the war against Taliban to be “someone else’s war”. But while Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan may have their own interpretations, Hakeem Ullah Mehsud has made it clear that his war is against Pakistan, whether its “Roshan” or “Naya” will not make a difference.
Today ANP has been left alone to fight a war for the survival and continuation of Pakistan’s democracy. After every bombing its battered leaders reiterate their demand for a timely election, one that their party is very likely to lose. It is a slap in the face of those who want to destabilize our democracy, but as a principled stance remains unappreciated by most Pakistanis.
Supporting the ANP doesn’t necessarily mean that one votes for it. Regardless of party affiliations the need is to provide a united front against the forces bent upon destabilizing democracy in Pakistan, and are presently focused on the ANP.
For those who still think ANP’s corruption doesn’t make it worth the effort, I propose the following calculation.
Step 1: Put a price on the life of a loved one.
Step 2: Multiply that price by 700.
Step 3: From this total subtract the biggest possible estimate for ANP’s corruption (make it KP’s entire budget if you may).
Lets see if the remainder is positive or negative.
Shehla Pucha Shwa
Shehla Pucha Shwa from Imran Khan on Vimeo.
I saw this clip sometime back, if one knows Urdu as well as Pashto then listening to it invokes instant laughter. Believe me, I have carried out this experiment on a lot of my friends.
The post laughter response to this has usually been a “tsk tsk” at the status of education in Pakistan. There have also been those who were saddened by the capacity of this boy to learn.
While there is no doubt that that the status of our education sector is appalling and is a reflection of the amount of budget we set for it every year. But is this child also deficient when it comes to his learning abilities?
I think he is a very brilliant kid; not only has he learned to read an alien language, but while reading he is creative enough to weave a story around the few words that are similar sounding to his language, i.e. Pashto.
When he hears the word Kaash, Urdu “To wish”, he recognizes it as Kaash, Pashto “Pistol Holster” and makes a story about Shehla’s father and his pistol. He reads the Urdu word Chupkay: “Silently” and he mistakes it for Pashto Chuka: “Stick” and weaves a story around that.
The result is hilarious in the first instance but is very tragic when one considers the struggle that this child is up against. Consider the fact that this weakness in comprehension is not only about Urdu, he has to learn science as well as mathematics with this same level of comprehension in Urdu.
Our education system is definitely under funded but in this instance it is more about policy than budget. Because as a policy decision we have overlooked to make use of the biggest educational advantage that this kid has, i.e. his mother language. He clearly gets onto a higher level of understanding when he thinks in Pashto. A lack of funding would not be the only thing to blame if this particular advantage is not utilized.
It is very often that you hear smug urbanites trash any notion of teaching in local languages because “duniya kahan ja rahi hai aur hum kahan”. The argument is that exposure to English is mandatory for the young so that they can be at ease with textbooks at a higher level.
While it is not impossible to teach a kid how to write and read in English, but for that the name of the school needs to be Beaconhouse or Karachi Grammar School. What we see in this video is a product of our Government School system from rural areas. We are talking about underpaid and under qualified teachers and schools without roofs. And no, those schools cannot be turned into Beaconhouses with the wave of a magic wand.
In a report titled “Language and Education: the missing link” , authors Pinnock & Vijayakumar (2009) highlight that drop out rates are much higher in linguistically diverse societies that use a single national or international language for schooling. According to the report 72% of the World’s out of school children were from the countries they term “most linguistically fractionalized” countries.
Pakistan, with 75 languages has an estimated 92% of its population devoid of education in mother language. Comparatively, India with 401 languages has only 25% of its population without education in their mother language.
There of course is merit with the concern that mastery of English is necessary to deal with textbooks at higher level of education. But as Pinnock and Vijayakumar point out “Evidence demonstrates, however, that studying in an English-only or national-language-only curriculum is not the best way to develop proficiency in that language. In fact, children have higher achievement levels in both their mother tongues and in national and international languages when they study in their mother tongues ” The idea is to introduce English later in the child’s schooling years, but initiate his initial learning in his own language.
The following infographic shows the educational attainment of 17-22 yr old Pakistanis and there are clear differences among linguistic groups. Urdu appears to be the least poor and seem to validate the conclusion of Pinnock & Vijayakumar. But one has to be careful in interpreting these results as native Urdu speakers in Pakistan reside in more developed and urban settings, therefore a higher enrollment rate might be a result of better school facilities and not necessarily because of education in mother language.
A report commissioned by the British Council in 2012 titled “Language in Education in Pakistan” had some pretty interesting observations. One of its findings was that “There is evidence that many people are strongly attached to their languages and wish to educate their children through those languages.”
The Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) is a good source to map this particular wish as it actually asks parents in rural Pakistan which language they would prefer as a medium of instruction. This infographic shows the provincial demands from parents regarding English, Urdu, and the mother language (which ASER calls “Home Language”)
But there is more divergence within provinces at district level, as shown in the map below.
While Sindh is overwhelmingly in favor of local languages, Punjab is its exact opposite. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan have more mixed preferences. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the northern Pashtun districts have a stronger preference when compared with the southern Pastun districts. Furthermore, the predominantly Hindko speaking districts of Hazara have a lower preference for Hindko to be used as a medium of instruction. The situation in Balochistan is more complicated and among the provinces it has the highest variance among districts.
An appreciable move by the previous government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was to make a switch to local languages as a medium of instruction. But some problems were foreseen, for instance teachers with inadequate skills to teach Pashto and Hindko. Apart from that some smaller languages were also left out.
It goes without saying that such a switch would not be a smooth one. But these deal more with improving a system that does not take advantage of the child’s existing language skills. In the long run it is a move in the right direction.
An edited version was published by Qissa Khawani on the 20th of April, 2013
91st Day of Naya Pakistan
Dear Diary,
Today is the 91st day of my Prime Ministership, 91st day of Naya Pakistan. Time magazine has declared me person of the year, Foreign Policy calls me “Pakistan’s Nostradamus”, and Newsweek wishes I could run for the presidency of the United States.
All in due time I told Newsweek, but I am happy that at the prime of my political career, the world has finally recognized the awesomeness that is me.
As I had predicted, PTI did sweep the elections; the patwaris were simply washed away in the tsunami. My Tsunami. Today, the national and provincial assemblies only have PTI and no other political party. Not surprising if you ask me, elections would have been rigged if the results were any different.
The so-called liberal “analysts” were bowled out; what they thought would be an analytical half volley turned out to be a toe-crushing yorker. These drone loving fake liberals could never tolerate my genuine liberal greatness, because I am so much better than them, in both soorat as well as seerat.
“How would you now finish corruption and terrorism in 90 days?” they asked “Are you going to do a military operation in Waziristan?” A resounding NO was my reply Dear Diary because only fake liberals support military operations, and I am the only real liberal in this country, Mashallah i.e.
But let me tell you Dear Diary, the Tiger of Mianwali was actually a bit worried. Even though I knew that I can never be wrong. I mean, If Imran Khan has said that the Taliban would be taken care off in 90 days then they will be taken care off in 90 days. After all who could forget that it was I who had predicted Pakistan’s win in the 1992 world cup?
One day as I was contemplating my options, an owl came out of nowhere and landed on my shoulder. Yes Dear Diary, an owl! But this was no ordinary owl; this one had flown all the way from Hogwarts and was carrying a message.
Harry Potter wanted to meet me.
The following day Harry arrived in Bani Gala riding a broomstick (not kidding). He told me that during the Tri Wizard Tournament, when he was listening to the golden egg under water, he had actually heard the song “Dil Main Ho Niyat Saaf, Rahay Insaaf, Kahay Imraaaan Khan!!” He didn’t disclose this earlier because he was afraid of the Jewish Lobby. But now after Voldemort’s death, Yes dear Diary I am not afraid to say his name… Voldemort, Voldemort, VOLDEMORT!!. But anyway as I was saying, with the death of Voldemort the Jewish lobby has weakened and thus Harry decided to make things public.
Next week we called a huge press conference. Well huge would be an understatement Dear Diary, as it was not a press conference but a press tsunami. Well not even a tsunami, I would rather call it a TSUNAMA!; from Roznama Surkhab, to New York times to the Daily Prophet, everyone was there.
The seating arrangement for the Tsunama conference raised a lot of suspense; we had placed the journalists in the middle while a huge fenced enclosure was erected to their left, and a dozen empty shipping containers were parked to their right.
I initiated the proceedings and officially asked Harry to rid Pakistan of terrorism. In response Harry took out his wand and shouted, “Accio Taliban! …Bad ones only!” suddenly the TTP started dropping from the sky and into the fenced enclosure. The army jawans surrounding the fence shouted hands up! and thus the formidable TTP was taken into custody, without even firing a single bullet!… Take that Najam Sethi!
I then asked Harry to help return the billions looted by corrupt politicians. Again Harry waved his wand and shouted “Accio Swiss Accounts! Politicians only!” and suddenly the parked containers became full with dollars. They say Zardari was watching it live and had a heart attack when he saw that. I pray for his recovery.
With this done, Harry broke his wand into two and embraced Islam at the hands of Junaid Jamshed. He has been renamed Harris Puttar and is now a member of the tableeghi jumaat as well as PTI.
And this is how I fulfilled my promise of eliminating corruption and terrorism from Pakistan within 90 days.
But that’s not the end dear Diary as there are drones to deal with as well. Luckily Superman has also joined our cause. Apparently when he was flying by the moon he heard the chaant “Koan bachai ga Pakistan? Imraaan Khan!! Imraaan Khan!!” He said he wants to help us take down the drones. Lets see how that one goes.
Naya Tirah
A hope was kindled in the hearts of many in the aftermath of the massacre at Quetta’s Alamdar road. In response to Lashkar e Jhangvi’s (LeJ) ownership of the killings, the leader of Pakistan Tehreek I Insaaf (PTI), Imran Khan, openly condemned LeJ by taking its name.
In most countries such a condemnation would be the minimum expected from a politician. But in Pakistan most politicians shy away from naming jihadi perpetrators, even when the killers are taking responsibility.
These politicians overwhelmingly belong to the parties from the center and right of Pakistan’s political spectrum. Imran Khan in particular has been called out by many of his critics for failing to condemn terrorism. Therefore, it was significant that he had condemned the LeJ, especially when one also considers his popularity.
But then, just days after his condemnation, Imran Khan repeated the mantra that has earned him the title of “Taliban Khan”.
In an interview, Khan Sahib offered this three-step solution to the problem of militancy:
Step 1: Disengage from the US led War on Terror (WoT).
Step 2: This will rob Taliban of their reason for Jihad, and most Taliban will renounce militancy.
Step 3: Use the tribes of FATA to take on the remaining Taliban.
This very simple solution is based on some very false assumptions. Consider this conclusion where he claims “Qabaili ilaqay k loag Mujahideen say nahi larain gay” i.e. “People of the tribal areas will not fight against the Mujahideen”. To conclude this is to assume the tribes of FATA to be in an alliance of sorts with the Taliban. It is important to analyze this assumption, because this is the cornerstone of PTI’s solution for militancy.
The implications of assuming a tribal-Taliban alliance are huge as it leads to the conclusion that the Pashtuns of FATA are partners in the crimes committed by the Taliban.
Now consider the fact that the TTP’s list of victims spreads across almost every sect and ethnicity in Pakistan. Try telling the relatives of a Punjabi victim of terror that the Pashtuns of FATA killed their loved one in order to avenge US drones. Sympathy is the last thing that should be expected. It is a highly irresponsible statement to be coming from a national leader.
But then this is not just about maintaining Pakistan’s ethnic harmony, as it is absolutely wrong to assume a tribal-Taliban alliance, because a majority of the people of FATA themselves are victims of the Taliban.
For the rest of us, Taliban rule is a fear that is still part of an uncertain future. But for many in FATA this is an every day reality. A whole generation is being raised without the hope that education provides or the lifeline that a health system extends. Ban on polio drops, enforced prayers and beards, lashings and beheadings. This is the life that no one would want, especially not the tribes of FATA who have always prided themselves on being Azad (free).
Contrary to the preposterous claim by the Chairman of PTI, the tribes of FATA are actually already fighting against the Taliban. The proof for that is overwhelming; anti Taliban Lashkars have been raised across FATA and around 1000 tribal elders have been massacred by the Taliban. A survey conducted by CAMP in 2010 asked the people of FATA about their views on the Pakistani Taliban; mere 11% had positive perceptions, similarly only 20% approved of the Afghan Taliban. Another survey of FATA respondents conducted by the New America Foundation in 2010, whose results have widely been used to oppose drones, also showed a mere 20% support for Pakistani Taliban, while only 29% for Afghan Taliban.
Ironically, this 23rd of March, when the PTI was heralding the beginning of a “Naya Pakistan” in Lahore, the assumptions of its anti terror policy were being blown up in the valley of Tirah (FATA).
The people of Tirah were being driven out en masse. But neither were they being attacked by CIA drones nor chased by US marines. Instead, they were under attack from the Tehreek I Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The same TTP, which the Chairman of PTI assumes to be in alliance with the people of Tirah.
Not only were these “Mujahideen” fighting against the Qabail, but they were fighting in a most despicable manner. Horrific stories are coming out of the area; of an old father shooting his disabled daughter because he could not carry her, and neither did he want to leave her at the mercy of the Taliban. Of men getting beheaded even after they had surrendered.
Imagine being one of these IDPs from Tirah; chased by the Taliban, losing your home and relatives to them, and then being told by a “FATA expert” that you are an ally of the Taliban; just because the US has invaded Afghanistan, and also because your grandfather fought the British. One can only imagine the response.
To an extent the problem also lies in Imran Khan’s romanticized perceptions about Pashtuns. It is very common to hear Khan sahib talk about the tribes of FATA as one would about the Klingons from Star Trek; warrior nation, ready to fight, fearless, undefeatable etc.
Well Tirah was a test case for those abilities; the Qabail did fight but were completely routed by the Taliban. After which they fled to save their lives, just like humans would in any other part of the world. Contrary to popular racist humor, the Pathans of Pakistan are as much insaans as the rest of Pakistan.
The vulnerability of these Pakistanis from Tirah is obvious from their current status as IDPs. Romanticizing their warrior skills is good for works of fiction, but would be ridiculous if done as a policy statement to absolve the state of its responsibility to defend them.
The Pakistanis of Tirah have as much a right to be defended by the state as do the Pakistanis of Bani Gala or Zaman Park, a defense that has very conveniently been declared as “futile” by the architects of Naya Pakistan.
Can we declare our personal freedoms to be not worth fighting for? Would we be ok with a “peace” that comes at the price of polio and illiteracy for our children and of beheading, amputations and lashings for ourselves?
If our freedoms are not worth fighting for then why have we been apportioning the bulk of our budget for defense since independence? What exactly were we planning to defend if not the future of our children?
If our military has failed to contain the Taliban threat, then that asks for the military’s performance review and not that FATA be put up for sale to the buyer with the sharpest knife or the biggest gun. If collateral damage is an issue then that demands a closer scrutiny of military operations and not that our people be handed over to a band of ruthless thugs.
While many Pakistanis are crossing their fingers for a Naya Pakistan, we already have a Naya Tirah. It is a Tirah that is empty of its people, and reeks of rotting dead bodies. It is also a Naya Tirah that is making its residents yearn for the old one.
Lets not end up in a Naya Pakistan that will also make us yearn for this old one.
First appeared in View Point online on the 5th of April 2013
2012: the year in bombings
In the terrorist’s arsenal, the bomb is perhaps the most devastating and cost effective. Its cost effectiveness is apparent when compared with armed assaults or other types of attacks. Detonate a bomb from a distance, and you don’t lose any of your people, strap it on to one of yours, and that turns him/her into the worlds smartest smart bomb, one that is capable of doing the maximum damage by fine tuning its target till the final moment.
As a country that has been rocked by bombings since the 80s, Pakistan is one of the worst victims of bomb attacks. Such has been the death toll from these attacks, that bombings with single digit causality figures hardly make it to our 9 pm headlines.
There is no doubt that Pakistan is the front line state in the war on terror, but then, is all of Pakistan a front line state, or does this front line of ours have corners of bliss? Ones where the sound of a bombing comes only through the ticker on news channels?
In my search for answers, I stumbled upon this excellent data source: the South Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP). It has statistics on terrorism in Pakistan as well as other countries in the region.
One such data series was the number of bomb blasts detailed according to cities. Using this data I mapped* the bombings for 2012.
One thing to remember is that this mapping is limited to just bombings and not armed assaults like the ones that happened in Gilgit Baltistan, when Shias were lined up outside buses and shot. Its important to point out that target killings, ambushes, beheadings as well as kidnappings occur frequently in Pakistan. Especially the violence in Karachi appears much low when only bombings are taken into account. According to SATP for 2012, the highest number or terrorism related deaths amongst the provinces were reported from Sindh at 1553, followed by Balochistan at 954, KP at 656, and Punjab at 104. But I could not find the district level breakup of this data, any leads to other data sources would be much appreciated.
What I mapped is an indicator for the overall damage. Since the website provides the number of dead and injured for each bombing, I randomly assigned weights to these numbers; 0.8 for the dead and 0.2 for the injured. So a bombing with 10 dead and 20 injured gets a damage score of 12. While one with 10 dead and 40 injured gets a higher score of 16, thus differentiating between their level of damage.
The figure below shows the cumulative annual district wise scores across Pakistan. A total of 648 bombings were reported across the country in 2012 leading to 1007 deaths.
The mapping points out three zones of high incidence of bomb attacks. Districts marked in red fall in the “Very HIGH” category of damage. In total the districts/agencies marked in red account for 61% of the incidents and 79% of the deaths. These red areas are concentrated in three distinct zones.
Zone 1 includes, Peshawar, Kohat, Nowshehra and D.I.Khan from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, while Khyber, Kurram, Bajaur, Orakzai, and Mohmand agencies from FATA. This zone accounts for 39% percent of all the bomb blasts in 2012, and 59% of the deaths as a result of bomb blasts. The worst bombing of the year was carried out in Jamrud bazaar on the 10th of January 2012, in which 35 people died while 78 were injured.
Zone 2 includes the districts of Quetta, Mastung, Dera Bugti and Sibi from Balochistan, where the damage is in the “Very HIGH” category. This zone accounts for 16% percent of all the bomb blasts and 16% percent of the deaths in 2012.
Zone 3 includes the various districts of Karachi and Malir, this accounts for 7% percent of the total bomb blasts and 4% percent of the killings.
The provincial break up of incidents and killed vs injured also reveal the share of the damage between provinces.
If we lump FATA and KP together, then it accounts for 65% of the incidents and 71% of the bombing related deaths in 2012.
There is a big difference among incidents in terms of impact; a cycle bomb and a C4 laden water tanker would both be qualified as “incidents” in our listing but then in terms of impact and the ruthlessness as well as capabilities of its planners, there is a huge difference. So which districts are at the mercy of the worst villains?
For this we look at the damage per incident or the average damage for these districts. I am keeping districts with less than 15 bombings out of this calculation, as a lower denominator is not good for a representative average. Again the districts from Zone 1 show the highest damage per attack.
| DIST_NAME | KILLED | INJURED | INCIDENTS | DAMAGE = (0.2*Injured) + (0.8*Killed) | Average Damage |
| Bajaur Agency | 53 | 107 | 12 | 445.4 | 37.11666667 |
| Kurram Agency | 67 | 152 | 19 | 566.4 | 29.81052632 |
| Khyber Agency | 229 | 369 | 90 | 1905.8 | 21.17555556 |
| Peshawar | 144 | 413 | 75 | 1234.6 | 16.46133333 |
| Kohat | 37 | 62 | 19 | 308.4 | 16.23157895 |
| South Waziristan Agency | 19 | 41 | 10 | 160.2 | 16.02 |
| Quetta | 93 | 408 | 52 | 825.6 | 15.87692308 |
| Karachi | 40 | 280 | 45 | 376 | 8.355555556 |
| North Waziristan Agency | 11 | 35 | 12 | 95 | 7.916666667 |
| Nowshera | 13 | 93 | 22 | 122.6 | 5.572727273 |
| Mohmand Agency | 26 | 34 | 41 | 214.8 | 5.23902439 |
| Dera Bugti | 22 | 58 | 43 | 187.6 | 4.362790698 |
| Charsadda | 4 | 36 | 27 | 39.2 | 1.451851852 |
| Swabi | 1 | 25 | 24 | 13 | 0.541666667 |
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Here is the district wise list of incidents and damage, ranked according to damage. Only those districts are included that came under atleast one bombing attack during 2012.
| DISTRICT NAME | KILLED | INJURED | INCIDENTS | DAMAGE = (0.2*Injured) + (0.8*Killed) |
| Khyber Agency | 229 | 369 | 90 | 1905.8 |
| Peshawar | 144 | 413 | 75 | 1234.6 |
| Quetta | 93 | 408 | 52 | 825.6 |
| Kurram Agency | 67 | 152 | 19 | 566.4 |
| Bajaur Agency | 53 | 107 | 12 | 445.4 |
| Karachi | 40 | 280 | 45 | 376 |
| Kohat | 37 | 62 | 19 | 308.4 |
| Orakzai Agency | 34 | 42 | 8 | 280.4 |
| Mastung | 29 | 67 | 4 | 245.4 |
| Mohmand Agency | 26 | 34 | 41 | 214.8 |
| Dera Bugti | 22 | 58 | 43 | 187.6 |
| Rawalpindi | 21 | 30 | 1 | 174 |
| Rahim Yar Khan | 21 | 27 | 1 | 173.4 |
| Sibi | 19 | 59 | 4 | 163.8 |
| South Waziristan Agency | 19 | 41 | 10 | 160.2 |
| D. I. Khan | 18 | 51 | 5 | 154.2 |
| Lower Dir | 17 | 17 | 4 | 139.4 |
| Nowshera | 13 | 93 | 22 | 122.6 |
| Killa Abdullah | 14 | 7 | 1 | 113.4 |
| North Waziristan Agency | 11 | 35 | 12 | 95 |
| Bannu | 10 | 36 | 4 | 87.2 |
| Upper Dir | 8 | 19 | 3 | 67.8 |
| Kech | 7 | 16 | 4 | 59.2 |
| Buner | 7 | 5 | 1 | 57 |
| Lahore | 5 | 67 | 3 | 53.4 |
| Jaffarabad | 5 | 2 | 6 | 40.4 |
| Charsadda | 4 | 36 | 27 | 39.2 |
| Nasirabad | 4 | 31 | 9 | 38.2 |
| Kohlu | 4 | 3 | 6 | 32.6 |
| Lakki Marwat | 4 | 2 | 9 | 32.4 |
| Hangu | 3 | 10 | 8 | 26 |
| Bhakkar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| Jacobabad | 2 | 10 | 1 | 18 |
| Bolan | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17.2 |
| Zhob | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 |
| Swabi | 1 | 25 | 24 | 13 |
| Panjgur | 1 | 10 | 3 | 10 |
| Kalat | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8.8 |
| Shangla | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8.8 |
| Vehari | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8.4 |
| Khuzdar | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8.2 |
| Loralai | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8.2 |
| Malakand PA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8.2 |
| Tribal Area adj Tank | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8.2 |
| Tribal Area adj Kohat | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Hyderabad | 0 | 9 | 12 | 1.8 |
| Mardan | 0 | 8 | 13 | 1.6 |
| Tribal Area adj Bannu | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1.2 |
| Tank | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Barkhan | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.6 |
| Nawabshah | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.6 |
| Attock | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Mansehra | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Pishin | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Chagai | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Islamabad | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Larkana | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Badin | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ghotki | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Khairpur | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Multan | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Naushahro Feroze | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Shikarpur | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sukkur | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ziarat | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
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Notes:
* One thing that I want to point out here is that I am using a .shp file for mapping. I got this file for free from the good people at citypulse.com. The file is a bit dated, and it does not show the latest district break up. For some of the newer districts, I am using their older parent district.
